Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has has something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
